[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082325
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG
18W/19W FROM 8N-17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS DISRUPTING THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ. WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST N OF
20N LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N49W TO INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR
3N51W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS
DISRUPTING THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF 9N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE
WAVE AND 53W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 64W FROM 15N-
21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. DRY AIR IS BEING INTRODUCED OVER THE N
PORTION OF THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NE OF THE WAVE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 22N59W TO
23N64W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST N OF
DAKAR. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N29W TO 6N48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 11W-18W AND A BROAD AREA FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 23W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD ILL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF N OF 20N W OF
85W SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS INLAND OVER THE SE
CONUS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NW
GULF W OF LINE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA IN LOUISIANA TO NE
MEXICO NEAR LAGUNA MORALES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
CENTRAL GULF FROM 27N91W TO 23N91W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 84W-
90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ARE SPREADING N INTO THE GULF WATERS
S OF 23N BETWEEN 87W-91W. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE ATLC
EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF. SAHARAN DUST HAS SPREAD ACROSS S
FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 84W GIVING THAT AREA HAZY
CONDITIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF HAITI TO THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR
11N81W. NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM GUATEMALA OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR HAVANA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
AND THE W ATLC. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH. THE E CARIBBEAN UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS S PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-
84W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI
HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE MAINLY IN THE GULF OF GONAVE.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER HAITI AND
CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER HAITI WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE W AND COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MON AND TUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ACROSS CUBA INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W CONTINUING TO 31N74W AND PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 77W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE S ATLC S
OF 23N E OF 70W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY NE OF THE WESTERN MOST
TROPICAL WAVE AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N TO INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO TO
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 65W-70W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
ATLC THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N23W THROUGH A SECOND UPPER LOW
NEAR 27N46W TO THE UPPER LOW N OF N OF HAITI NEAR 21N71W. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC FROM 32N32W TO 28N32W. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 36N29W AND A 1032 IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 35N48W AND EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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