[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA IS CENTERED NEAR 38.5N 75.0W AT
08/0300 UTC OR 13 NM NNE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND AND 26 NM S OF
CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY MOVING NE AT 30 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 39 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 78W-81W. THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND
ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N42W TO 0N45W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH MAXIMUM MOISTURE
EXTENDING WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE AXIS AS INDICATED BY TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 43W-47W COINCIDING WITH THIS AREA OF HIGH
MOISTURE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N52W TO 13N54W MOVING W-NW IN THE
SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AT 5 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MOISTURE HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED AND IS MOSTLY CONFINED N OF 17N WITHIN
230 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING
PRODUCT IS SHOWING SOME DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WHICH COULD
BE LIMITING ITS CONVECTION TO ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 18N-
21N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
12N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N17W TO 04N30W 04N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-12N EAST OF 17W...FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN
18W-23W AND FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 26W-32W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN 34W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
SE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS MOISTURE IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
AT 0300 UTC FROM 26N86W TO 21N89W AND THE WESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM A LOW NEAR 36N83W...ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA TO CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED TO THE W SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 94W. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS. A PATTERN OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD BE SUPPORTING MORE SHOWERS IN THE SE GULF WITHIN THIS
PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WHILE A NARROW INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS SW IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM LA HISPANIOLA ALL THE WAY TO PANAMA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AS WELL AS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT DRY STABLE AIR IS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN PROVIDING FOR
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADEWINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 10-20 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN. AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 53W IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE CARIBBEAN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY INCREASING
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS REGION.

HISPANIOLA...
A NARROW INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM LA HISPANIOLA ALL THE
WAY TO PANAMA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE
ISLAND WHICH IS FAVORING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...
EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED BETWEEN MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR
24N76W. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N W OF 77W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 33N30W TO 29N29W WITH NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO IT. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC...ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 36N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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