[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA IS CENTERED NEAR 37.5N 76.0W AT
08/0000 UTC OR 35 NM NNE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA AND 65 NM SW OF
OCEAN CITY MARYLAND MOVING NE AT 24 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 35N-37N
BETWEEN 78W-81W. ANDREA IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA REGION THIS EVENING AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND TO NOVA
SCOTIA CANADA SATURDAY. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N43W TO 09N41W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH LOW-LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 41W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N54W TO 19N52W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN
48W-57W. THIS AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE CORRESPONDS WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 48W-
56W. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THIS AREA EAST OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
08N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N19W TO 05N29W TO 04N34W TO 05N43W TO 01N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 16W-21W...AND FROM
02N-07N BETWEEN 24W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IS OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA FOCUSED ON A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 26N87W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING SE OF A LINE FROM THE
TAMPA BAY REGION NEAR 28N83W TO 24N90W TO 20N90W...INCLUDING
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N97W SW TO 28N90W TO THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS N OF 26N W OF 96W. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
SURFACE RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE GULF BY LATE
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD OVER THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA STRAITS...AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
EVENING WITH MOST CONVECTION OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO. OTHERWISE...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W-84W AS NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PROVIDES AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FARTHER EAST...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF
72W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTH
AMERICAN CONTINENT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. LOWER TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY HIGHER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF
69W ACCORDING TO TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT RESULTS
IN AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SURROUNDING PUERTO
RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND LESSER ANTILLES. AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 54W WILL SKIRT THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE CARIBBEAN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AS OVERALL STABLE
CONDITIONS PERSIST DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DRIER AIR IS PLACED TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
WESTWARD OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET WITH E-SE WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED BETWEEN MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR
26N75W. WITH AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING W OF A LINE FROM 32N72W
TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC...ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N43W. ONE AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 54W DISCUSSED ABOVE AND THE OTHER IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 28N29W TO 33N29W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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