[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS CENTERED NEAR 32.4N 80.7W AT 07/0900
UTC OR 26 NM NE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND 43 NM SW OF CHARLESTON
SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING NE AT 24 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 39 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. THE RAINBANDS OF ANDREA ARE PRIMARILY OVER
WATER TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER EXTENDING FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO
THE BAHAMAS WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. AN
INNER RAINBAND IS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EXTENDS TO THE E
GULF GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-26N E OF
84W. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR ANDREA DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED FOR THIS SYSTEM TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY. ANDREA IS FORECAST TO
TRACK NE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ITS CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N48W TO 12N49W MOVING W-NW AT 10
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE LIES NW OF THE AXIS WHILE DRY AIR LIES
SW AND SE OF THE AXIS S OF 15N. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING
PRODUCT IS SHOWING SOME DRY AIR SPREADING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
WHICH COULD LIMIT ITS CONVECTION AS IT MOVES W-NW. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 45W-49W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N37W TO 02N37W MOVING W AT 5 KT.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AXIS AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN ITS VICINITY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 35W-43W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
05N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N21W TO 05N28W 05N35W. IT RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
02N39W TO 01S50W. WIDELY SCATTERRED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
0S-8N EAST OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS OVER SE SOUTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER ITS
RAINBANDS EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE BAHAMAS AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. THE RAINBAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-26N EAST OF 85W.
OVER THE NW GULF...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA NEAR
29N92W TO 29N95W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THEN SE INTO THE GULF TO 22N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOW VERY DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING WHICH
IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXCEPT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN INFLUENCED IN PART BY
MODERATE DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH IS E OF 69W JUST W OF A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
13N37W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 65W.
OTHERWISE...TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING BEING
SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
AND NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND LITTLE CHANGES WITH RESPECT OF CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM ANDREA EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS
TO THE BAHAMAS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM N OF 22N W OF 74W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB
HIGH NEAR 35N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net