[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS CENTERED NEAR 30.3N 82.4W AT 07/0300
UTC OR 35 NM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND 55 NM ESE OF VALDOSTA
GEORGIA MOVING NE AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 39 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO ANDREA IS OVER GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER THE OUTERMOST RAINBAND OF ANDREA EXTENDS
TO THE W ATLC AND IS GENERATING RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TO 34N W OF 74W. ANDREA IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ITS CENTER
WILL MOVE FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT
AND THEN MOVE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N46W TO 12N47W MOVING W-NW AT 5-10
KT. A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N47W.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THAT MOISTURE HAS REDUCED
AROUND THAT LOW. HIGH MOISTURE IS NOW CONFINED TO THE NW OF THE
WAVE AXIS WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 47W-49W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 170 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
12N-15N. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT IS SHOWING SOME DRY
AIR AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WHICH COULD BE LIMITING ITS CONVECTION AS
IT MOVES W-NW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
05N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N21W TO 05N30W 04N38W 01N44W TO 0S49W. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS WITHIN 130 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF LIBERIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N-09N BETWEEN 13W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 28W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS OVER THE NE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS NOW OUT OF THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER
LEVEL A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF N
OF 22N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS
THE BASIN THIS EVENING WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
LOUISIANA COAST ASSOCIATED TO A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 29N92W TO 28N95W. A 1011 MB HIGH IS JUST SOUTH OF
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR 27N93W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGES OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXCEPT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN INFLUENCED IN PART BY
MODERATE DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH IS E OF 71W JUST W OF A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
12N36W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-
18N E OF 68W. OTHERWISE...TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE ACROSS
THE BASIN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...
TONIGHT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING
SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
AND NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND LITTLE CHANGES WITH RESPECT OF CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE W ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A BAND OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM
ANDREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N-30N W OF 76W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 35N42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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