[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060612 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

CORRECTION FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ABOUT
T.S. ANDREA

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA AT 06/0600 UTC IS NEAR
26.8N 86.2W. THE POSITION IS ABOUT 208 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF TAMPA FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 186 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ANDREA IS MOVING NORTHWARD 9 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG COVERS FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM CUBA NEAR 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W.
NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N
TO THE EAST OF 90W...IN GUATEMALA...AND IN SOUTHERN MEXICO TO
THE EAST OF 94W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 7N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
7N16W 5N25W 6N32W AND 4N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG IN CLUSTERS
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...AND
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 88W. THIS AREA IS
AWAY FROM THE AREA THAT IS BEING AFFECTED BY T.S. ANDREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N87W IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO 25N97W
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD...
INTO LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND
LIGHT RAIN ARE IN ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
BEING OBSERVED IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LIGHT RAIN COVERS
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO SARASOTA TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ICAO STATION KEHC
AND KGUL. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...AND THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 0 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...WITHIN
60 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 120 NM
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SEA HEIGHTS 12 FEET OR
GREATER ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN 120 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE...0 NM SW QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 75 NM IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 270 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 30 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 87W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA...BEYOND 32N80W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO
11N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS
OCCURRING AT 05/2115 UTC HAS WEAKENED. REMNANT
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W IN
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF
COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO
THE WEST OF 84W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 11.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W.

HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WIND REGIME IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THAT RUNS FROM
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA...BEYOND 32N80W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
BAHAMAS BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

THE 700 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE PATTERN CHANGES
GRADUALLY AFTER 24 HOURS...TRENDING INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE 500 MB GFS SHOWS THAT NORTH-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW PASS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF
A TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE/ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE WEST. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N10W...THROUGH SOUTHERN MOROCCO...TO 25N15W
IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SAHARA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 35N43W...THROUGH 32N56W...TO 27N66W AND 23N70W...
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N23W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 44W TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 16N WITHIN 120 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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