[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 052352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS CENTERED NEAR 25.5N 86.5W AT 06/0000
UTC OR 260 NM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND 265 NM SSW OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA MOVING N AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-28N BETWEEN 79W-88W.
ANDREA IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE TOWARDS THE BIG BEND REGION OF
FLORIDA BY THURSDAY...CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND CONTINUE
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N45W TO 16N42W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN
38W-44W. THIS AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE ROUGHLY CORRESPONDS WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 39W-
46W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
05N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N16W TO 06N29W TO 05N37W TO 09N43W TO 05N52. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 08W...
AND FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 11W-20W...AND FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 20W-
30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM ANDREA REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING AS IT CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS STRETCHING FROM
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN N-NE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...
FLORIDA STRAITS...AND MUCH OF FLORIDA. ANDREA IS LOCATED
SLIGHTLY EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALONG 90W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED EAST OF
THIS TROUGHING AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING EASTWARD INTO
THE SW NORTH ATLC. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES
WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THIS EVENING FOR THE WESTERN GULF. ANDREA IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NE TOWARDS THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA AND ACROSS FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG THE SE COAST OF THE U.S
THROUGH FRIDAY. REMNANT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AS ANDREA EXITS THE BASIN...WITH
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE WESTERN GULF WITH
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR 15N88W TO BEYOND CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W AND INTO
THE SW NORTH ATLC. W OF 80W...THIS RIDGING IS PROVIDING FOR AN
OVERALL DIFFLUENT ATMOSPHERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO ARE OCCURRING N OF 19N BETWEEN 82W-89W...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA
CONTINUES TO PRESENT A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING FARTHER
SOUTH OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 18N AS THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TO
CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W.
OTHERWISE...ELSEWHERE MOST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AS E-SE TRADES PERSIST. THE
STRONGEST AREA OF TRADES IS GENERALLY LOCATED BETWEEN 66W-76W AS
NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES.
FINALLY...MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES ARE
UNDER FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR AND VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THIS CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES TO
MOVE W-NW. ONCE THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS...THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET AS NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AND WILL PROVIDE FOR AN OVERALL STABLE
OVERNIGHT ENVIRONMENT. LOOKING AHEAD...E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND INITIATING AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ATMOSPHERE LIES OVER MUCH OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
W OF 62W. TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 74W...
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. OTHERWISE...AT
THE SURFACE...E-SE WINDS REMAIN DOMINATE AS TROPICAL STORM
ANDREA CENTERED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS N-NE TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
APPROACHES AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. FARTHER EAST...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N58W IS PROVIDING LIFT TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 52W-58W
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCING MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SURFACE HIGH ANCHORING THE RIDGE IS
CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N43W AND REMAINS AT
1028 MB. OTHERWISE...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING...A WEAKENING
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N26W TO 28N33W WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N26W
TO 26N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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