[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS IMPACTING THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 25N89W WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 29N87W TO 20N91W. THE LOW CENTER IS NOT WELL-
DEFINED AT THIS TIME AND COULD BE REFORMING FARTHER TO THE EAST.
CONVECTION REMAINS EAST OF THE SYSTEM AS DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND
THE WEST SIDE. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 81W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 80W-82W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG 90W IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH IS
HELPING ENHANCE THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION. PORTIONS OF
WESTERN CUBA AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA HAVE REPORTED
SERIOUS FLOODING. THIS FLOODING RISK WILL CONTINUE OVER THESE
AREAS AND IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS FLORIDA AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTER THIS TIME...IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS
THE NE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N39W TO 7N42W MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE
WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 40W-43W...AND FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 38W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N69W TO 15N73W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. IT ALSO IS
JUST WEST OF A LARGE AREA OF DUST THAT EXTENDS BETWEEN THE
WAVES. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THE WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AS IT HAS LOST
MOST OF ITS DEEP MOISTURE AND IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 11N15W
TO 7N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N30W
8N37W. IT PICKS BACK UP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 7N45W 6N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 12W-18W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 21W-32W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. THERE IS NO WELL DEFINED CENTER AT
THIS TIME AND THE LOW PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED NEAR 25N89W APPEARS TO
BE FALLING APART AS A NEW LOW FORMS FARTHER EAST. REGARDLESS OF
WHERE THE LOW CENTER IS...STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EASTERN GULF FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 82W-87W.
OVER FLORIDA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N-27N ACROSS THE
PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE. REPORTS OF FLOODING ARE ALREADY
COMING OUT OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA. IF THE AREA OF STRONG
ACTIVITY SHIFTS EAST OVER FLORIDA FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO
OCCUR. WEST OF 89W...WEST OF THE SYSTEM...DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND
THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 90W IS PROVIDING MOSTLY
FAIR CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE LIGHT OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...WINDS
OF 20-30 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN GULF IN THE AREAS OF CONVECTION
WITH LIKELY GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY
IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE RACING
TOWARDS THE NE. MOIST AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN GULF DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SOUTHEAST
FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THIS AREA AND INTO
THE SE GULF AROUND A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY...A
LARGE BURST OF STRONG SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 81W-87W. FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE RAIN HAS
BEEN CONTINUOUS FOR 4 DAYS NOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
IS FAIRLY DRY IN COMPARISON. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 77W-83W ACROSS
PANAMA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA
NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W. THE WAVE HAS LOST MOST OF ITS
ENERGY AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE IN THE
ATLC. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED ON THE NEXT ANALYSIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF DUST WEST OF THE
WAVE...WHICH IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20 KT IS THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
NE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NORTHERN  COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NW CORNER.

HISPANIOLA...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ISLAND...ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE
INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS. A DRY AND DUSTY AIRMASS IS TO THE
EAST...WHICH IS LIKELY INHIBITING MORE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
WAVE. TYPICAL AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE DAY
CONTINUES DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...BUT MAY BE LESS THAN NORMAL
DUE TO THE DUST. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC AROUND A
1028 MB HIGH NEAR 36N44W. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FILTERING OVER INTO THE FAR
WEST ATLC SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WEST OF 78W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 67W-71W. ALOFT...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 78W...WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE
EAST EXTENDING FROM 24N59W TO 18N63W CONTINUING INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. A SECOND WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 36N59W TO 28N45W.
NEITHER UPPER TROUGH IS CAUSING MUCH ACTIVE WEATHER AS A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALONG 40W SUPPORTS THE BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE. A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE EAST
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N28W TO 27N34W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS. THE SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC AS WELL. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
EASTERN ATLC WITH A SECOND AREA WEST OF THE WAVE CONTINUING
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

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