[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA...ALONG 90W...INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N89W...INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND NORTHEASTERN GUATEMALA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 88W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN
91W AND 99W...AND FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE REST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF
28N TO THE EAST OF 84W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS
FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF 31N BETWEEN 70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND 88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ALSO
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE WEST OF 15N83W 19N80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST
OF 88W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 5N
TO 12N. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 8N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W...AND
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND 46W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W FROM 12N TO
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W AND 74W...IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA...
CUBA...AND HAITI. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH
IS ALONG 24N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 20N64W...ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 16N68W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 24N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN
57W AND 69W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 5N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
5N19W 4N26W AND 6N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG IN CLUSTERS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST
OF 40W...AND FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 49W AND 59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 88W. THIS AREA
EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL GULF OF
MEXICO TROUGH...AND WESTWARD.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN EDINBURG AND ANGLETON/
LAKE JACKSON. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE WITH FOG ARE IN
HARLINGEN...2 MILES OR LESS IN ALICE...AND 1 MILE OR LESS
AT THE PEARLAND REGIONAL AIRPORT IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA. PORT LAVACA REPORTED A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS
DURING THE LAST HOUR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ALONG THE REST OF THE TEXAS
GULF COAST. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS...INLAND FROM THE COAST.
MOSTLY LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF COASTAL PLAINS
FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR DESTIN AND
VALPARAISO...AND TO CRESTVIEW AND MARIANNA. LOW LEVEL TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM PERRY TO
BROOKSVILLE. HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS ARE REPORTED AT THE TAMPA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM SARASOTA
TO PUNTA GORDA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS WITH RAIN ARE
OBSERVED FROM FORT MYERS TO NAPLES. THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR
STATION IS OBSERVING A LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ICAO STATION KGVX THAT IS
OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST...AND KDLP THAT IS OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES
AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...AND THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH FROM 29N89W TO A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N89W...TO 19N89W. EXPECT
SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 86W. THE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 87W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL
HONDURAS...BEYOND WESTERN CUBA...BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 05/0000 UTC...ARE 1.35 IN TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS...AND
0.13 IN GUADELOUPE...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS
PANAMA...THROUGH COSTA RICA...INTO WESTERN NICARAGUA...
AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN THE
COLOMBIA BORDER WITH NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND THE
GULF OF URABA...ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST
OF COLOMBIA FROM 2N TO 6N TO THE EAST OF 8OW. SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...FROM 7N TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA TO 10N
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN
78W AND 81W...AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL
WATERS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS FROM
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING
IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W
AND 76W.

HISPANIOLA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W FROM 12N TO
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W AND 74W...IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA...
CUBA...AND HAITI. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH
IS ALONG 24N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 20N64W...ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 16N68W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 24N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN
57W AND 69W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE 700 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND THEN IN A RIDGE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THAT. THE 500 MB GFS SHOWS
THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST
SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. HISPANIOLA WILL RECEIVE NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW AT 250 MB...BEING IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE/ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO THE WEST. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N12W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N20W...
AND 18N28W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT REACHES 31N28W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N25W 28N30W 26N35W 27N40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N52W 27N68W...TO FLORIDA
NEAR 27N82W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 80W...
AWAY FROM THE COLD FRONT THAT REACHES 31N28W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE 43W/44W TROPICAL
WAVE THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 19N. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 12N
WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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