[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N87W TO
THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THAT IS NEAR 21N89W...
INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...TO 26N87W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE MEXICO BORDER
WITH NORTHERN GUATEMALA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
ACROSS CUBA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N77W
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING. ADDITIONAL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DESPITE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY IN SECTIONS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N32W 10N36W
6N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
28W AND 35W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N62W 15N63W
TO 10N65W ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MAY
PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER AREA OF
COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU AND GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 6N21W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N21W TO 10N31W...AND FROM
7N40W TO 6N47W AND 6N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN
37W AND 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE EAST OF 27W...FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 30N84W 25N87W
22N88W. THIS AREA IS IN AND TO THE WEST OF THE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...AND THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 28N87.5W 17N90W SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH
OF 26.5N BETWEEN 82.5W AND 86.5W INCLUDING IN THE
ENTRANCE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WEST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA AND THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...BEYOND 32N77W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
WEST OF 80W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 88W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS
10N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INTO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
HONDURAS...ACROSS SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
WAS OCCURRING IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 10N TO THE WEST OF
74W. IT HAS BEEN WEAKENING/DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS. SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA. NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA AND THE EASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH OF 19N OVER LAND...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE EASTERLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W. EXPECT
25 TO 30 KNOT EAST WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N OFF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W.
ALSO EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST
OF 82W...INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
24N67W...THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 17N68W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 15N68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM CUBA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N62W 15N63W
TO 10N65W ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MAY PASS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE 700 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 500 MB GFS SHOWS
THAT A TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA...SQUEEZED IN
BETWEEN TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.
THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL BE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. A 250 MB
RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND 24 HOURS OR SO.
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 26N21W. A SHEAR
AXIS IS ALONG 26N21W TO 22N36W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N50W.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO 30N63W...AND THE EASTERN
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N80W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
EAST OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12.5N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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