[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N31W 7N36W MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. THE
WAVE AXIS IS TILTED AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. THE
METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS THIS WAVE CONTINUES
ENGULFED BY SAL DRY AIR. THE METEOSAT-9 PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR
IMAGERY SHOW BROWN HAZE OVER ITS AXIS N OF 12N INDICATING THE
PRESENCE OF SAL DUST. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-
12N BETWEEN 32W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N61W 11N62W MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. THE
METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS THIS WAVE IS WITHIN 220 NM
AHEAD OF THE SAL OUTBREAK SPREADING OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLC. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE
IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE AXIS S OF 13N. RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND CAN EXTEND EASTWARD TO 57W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 11N15W
TO 8N19W 7N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N22W AND CONTINUES TO 10
N30W. IT RESUMES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 5N40W
TO 4N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 12W-
20W. A BURST OF NUMEROUS TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 8N-11N E OF 16W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 14W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE GULF W OF
86W. OVER THAT PORTION OF THE GULF DRY AIR SINKING FROM ALOFT IS
SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 28N86W
23N90W TO 17N91W. DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
A RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE W AND S CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A HIGH
CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF...JUST
E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...WINDS OF 5-15 KT
SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN WITH HIGHER WINDS UP TO 25 KT EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A HIGH CONCENTRATION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS W OF 80W OVER THE
W AND S CARIBBEAN COLOCATED WITH A REGION OF DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF AND A RIDGE COVERING THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 72W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N W
OF 79W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
WITHIN 80 NM OF THE NICARAGUA COAST MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
ENTERED THE WATERS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THIS WAVE IS BEING SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE COASTS
OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE W OF 72W AND THE TROUGH NE OF
THE BASIN. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES AS A TONGUE OF DRY
AIR ALOFT ASSISTS IN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL
REMAIN UNDER VERY MOIST CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD BRINGING MOISTURE WITH IT AND ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF
RAIN OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER LA HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING DEPICTED
IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDESPREAD DUST HAS
BEEN REPORTED OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM A RIDGE W OF 72W AND A TROUGH OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER
ANTILLES MOVING AT AROUND 5-10 KT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WILL LIKELY REACH THE ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE W ATLC...MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS W OF 70W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF 27N BEING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GULF AND A RIDGE SPREADING OVER THE W AND S
CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS BEING
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL NARROW TROUGH. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 19N IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING
AND DRY AIR ALOFT SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS

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