[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N29W 6N32W MOVING WEST AT 5 KT. THE
WAVE AXIS IS TILTED AND EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AXIS. THE METEOSAT-
9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS THIS WAVE IS BEING ENGULFED BY SAL
DRY AIR. THE METEOSAT-9 PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY SHOW A
BROWN HAZE OVER THE NORTHERN REGION OF THIS WAVE WHICH INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF SAL DUST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE IS LIMITED TO THE PORTION OF THE WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N55W 9N56W MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. THE
METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS THIS WAVE IS AHEAD OF THE
SAL OUTBREAK SPREADING OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC.
THE WAVE AXIS IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE E OF THE AXIS FROM
7N-13N BETWEEN 53W-58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W
TO 11N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 11N23W AND CONTINUES TO
8N29W...THEN RESUMES FROM 6N33W TO 5N44W TO 9N55W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL  WAVES...NUMEROUS
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 11W-
20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 24W-
27W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
47W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF S OF 25N
THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS BEING REPRESENTED AS
A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 18N95W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
25N84W TO 21N88W AND THEN ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THESE
SURFACE FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED IN HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDING TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS
CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF AND A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W
ASSOCIATED TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG 29N90W 27N93W
TO 27N96W.  OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS BEING SUPPRESSED DUE TO A TONGUE OF DRY AIR ALOFT. MOIST
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW AND SE GULF FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AND A
NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS THROUGHOUT THE NW AND SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EXTENDS TO 80W
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 115 NM OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
FROM THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER S MEXICO EXTENDING TO THE NW AND S
CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER LA HISPANIOLA.
THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
COAST BETWEEN 69W-72W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT SPREADS
OVER THE BASIN. THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN UNDER VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES WILL BRING A MOIST AIRMASS THROUGH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BEGINNING TOMORROW THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN.

HISPANIOLA...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM A RIDGE CENTERED OVER S MEXICO
EXTENDING TO THE NW AND S CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLC IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER
LA HISPANIOLA. THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COAST BETWEEN 69W-72W. DIFFLUENCE AND
TROUGHINESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE ISLAND. AT THE
SURFACE LEVEL...MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE
ISLAND BY 48 HOURS...WHICH FURTHER INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N68W 26N71W TO 23N74W IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 61W-
72W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM A LOW NEAR 35N67W. CONVECTION
OVER THE W ATLC IS LIKELY AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N IS BEING INFLUENCED BY
SURFACE RIDGING WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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