[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 13N24W TO 5N26W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 5N-
14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE
OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W CONTINUING ALONG 7N29W TO 6N31W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N39W TO 7N48W THEN RESUMES W OF THE
WAVE NEAR 7N53W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 34W-38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE N
OF 2N TO THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E OF 10W TO THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 12W-17W...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 24W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF S OF 27N E OF 92W
WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ELSEWHERE. AN UPPER TROUGH
IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE THE NEXT FRONT TO
ENTER THE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
OVER THE FAR SE CONUS AND IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT EASTWARD BUT
STILL GIVING THE GULF SE SURFACE FLOW. AN ILL-DEFINED 1008 MB
SURFACE LOW IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 02/0300 UTC NEAR 19N94W
WITH THE TYPICAL LATE EVENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE
W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. N OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING
DRAWN ACROSS THE SE GULF BY THE UPPER RIDGE. THE SURFACE
FEATURES COUPLED WITH DIFFLUNCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER
RIDGE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 24N E OF 90W AND S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-96W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF
FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W TO 27N83W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT E THROUGH WED.
SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT IN N-NE SUN AND MON. WEAK COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR NW GULF SUN AND REACH FROM BIG BEND
FLORIDA TO 28N94W THEN DRIFT N BACK INLAND TUE AND WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN W OF 64W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF
77W TO OVER THE YUCATAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 77W-83W. ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BASIN THROUGH MON BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY E-SE ON TUE. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON THEN WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES W ACROSS CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED.

HISPANIOLA...
EVENING SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF GONAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE ISLAND BUT NOT THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE SEEN OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF
27N W OF 68W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N W OF 67W. THE
UPPER LOW IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA GIVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH A 1026 MB HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC NE
OF BERMUDA. ATLC RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH MON BEFORE SHIFTING
SLOWLY EASTWARD TUE. WEAK TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF
BAHAMAS SUN AND MON AND DRIFT IN W THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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