[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 310538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N40W TO 7N34W
MOVING W-SW NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE
OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THE NOAA GOES R SATELLITE SHOWS THE WAVE AT THE LEADING
EDGE OF A DENSE SAHARAN DUST LAYER WHICH IS LIMITING SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SW ATLC/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM
23N76W TO 14N76W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W
ATLC. HOWEVER...THE S PORTION IS WITHIN AN AREA OF LIMITED
MOISTURE...ALL AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY AND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WAVE IS MOVING W OF AN UPPER
LOW THAT COVERS THE W ATLC WHICH IS ENHANCING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY NOT BY THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 21N16W AND CONTINUES THROUGH A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR
14N25W THEN ALONG 8N31W TO 6N37W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N48W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N E OF 30W TO INLAND
OVER SW AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER W TEXAS EXTENDS E ACROSS THE
SE CONUS ALONG THE N GULF COAST AND INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE
GULF NE TO E FLOW ALOFT. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THIS MAIN
RIDGE E-SE OVER CUBA TO HAITI. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS S MEXICO TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRY AIR ALOFT MAINLY OVER THE W GULF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER
FLORIDA HAVE MOVED INTO THE E GULF E OF 84W INCLUDING THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. SIMILAR AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY THAT GENERATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAVE MOVED
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 95W. A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
FLORIDA TO TEXAS AND MEXICO WITH A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH NEAR
29N85W. THE GULF HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES S THROUGH SUN.
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW ATLC IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SE
GULF WED NIGHT AND THU AND POSSIBLY REACH THE FAR SE PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA TO OVER THE THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS E-SE OVER CUBA TO
HAITI. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER
PUERTO RICO TO CUBA INCLUDING JAMAICA HAVE MOVED INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS DOTTING THE AREA N OF 17N BETWEEN 66W-80W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 9N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W
OF 80W. W ATLC/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE W CARIBBEAN WED AND EXIT THE AREA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED
OFF THE ISLAND INTO THE GULF OF GONAVE TONIGHT. THEY WILL
FURTHER DIMINISH OVER BY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA
ENHANCED THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE W LATE
WED THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SAT AS A SECOND UPPER LOW
MOVES TOWARD THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
ALONG 30N TO 70W BUT IS IS BEING UNDERCUT E OF 75W BY AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED NEAR 24N71W. THIS UPPER LOW
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N
TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND INLAND OVER CUBA W OF 68W INTO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SECOND LARGER UPPER LOW IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N52W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 27N49W TO TO 20N50W AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN
49W-60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH ABOUT 140 NM E OF BERMUDA AND
A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 29N36W. THE HIGH E OF BERMUDA
WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU THEN SHIFT S TO NEAR 27N FRI
THROUGH SUN. THE W ATLC/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE W ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION THROUGH WED AND REACH THE SE GULF
WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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