[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 281947
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
350 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IN THE REMNANTS OF
DORIAN...LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND CONSISTS OF A SHARP SURFACE
TROUGH.  THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE WELL NORTH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.

ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 20 MPH...PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO THROUGH MONDAY...AND MOVING OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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