[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 272032
TCDAT4

REMNANTS OF DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013
500 PM AST SAT JUL 27 2013

ASCAT AMBIGUITY DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT DORIAN NO
LONGER HAD A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.  THUS...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS SUCCUMBED TO THE HARSH ENVIRONMENT AND HAS DEGENERATED
INTO A TROPICAL WAVE.  THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS STILL ABOUT 35 KT
ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT PASS.  REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS
UNLIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN SHOULD
PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IN 2-3 DAYS.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE WAVE TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 18.9N  54.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...REMNANTS OF DORIAN
 12H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



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