[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN IS CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 48.1W AT 27/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 855 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W
AT 19 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 45W-50W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED AT 27/0000 UTC EXTENDING FROM
19N20W TO 6N24W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE
USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEAK AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY INLAND OVER S MEXICO INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N24W TO 7N31W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
5N52W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
13N17W TO 10N19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 13W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE GULF TO FLORIDA
GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LOW IS
OVER S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS INLAND OVER S MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 25N88W LEAVING THE GULF WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE GULF THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 74W ANCHORED OFF THE
COAST OF W PANAMA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER
MOST OF THE E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM E
CUBA TO PUERTO RICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 8N/9N FROM COLOMBIA
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W
OF 79W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM DORIAN IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC WILL MOVE W-NW WHILE WEAKENING. DORIAN IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION E-NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SAT
MORNING CONTINUING N OF PUERTO RICO MON AND N OF HISPANIOLA TUE
THEN DISSIPATE WED.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF HISPANIOLA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE
GULF OF GONAVE AND THE S PENINSULA OF HAITI WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WILL PASS N OF
HISPANIOLA TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE FAR W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 74W TO
OVER NE FLORIDA SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 27/0300
UTC EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 32N75W ALONG 29N76W TO
A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 28N79W CONTINUING TO OVER S FLORIDA NEAR WEST
PALM BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM E AND SE OF THE FRONT/LOWS. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N65W COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN
55W-72W AND DIPPING S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 62W-69W AND FROM
26N-31N BETWEEN 50W-58W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-70W WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH W OF THE
AZORES. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N24W
TO 27N28W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED.
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL MOVE W-NW WHILE
WEAKENING. DORIAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
E-NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SAT MORNING CONTINUING N OF PUERTO
RICO MON AND N OF HISPANIOLA TUE THEN DISSIPATE WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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