[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 270232
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013
1100 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013

DORIAN APPEARS TO STILL HAVE A VIGOROUS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS
MEASURED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS...BUT IT HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS. I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE DORIAN A
REMNANT LOW IN THIS ADVISORY...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
CIRCULATION IS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
LESSEN...NEW CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP. THE BEST OPTION IS TO KEEP
THE CYCLONE FOR A COUPLE OF MORE ADVISORY CYCLES AND MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION. SHIPS AND LGEM RE-INTENSIFY THE
CYCLONE A LITTLE BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BIASED TOWARD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH GRADUALLY WEAKEN DORIAN.

THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLIES...AND AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE...REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH...IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...OR HOPEFULLY SOONER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 17.9N  48.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 18.3N  51.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 18.8N  55.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 19.3N  59.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0000Z 20.0N  63.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0000Z 21.0N  70.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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