[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN AT 26/2100 UTC IS NEAR 17.8N
45.8W. DORIAN IS MOVING WEST AT 18 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N-
22N BETWEEN 42W-47W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                           A

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF CAMPECHE AT 21N92W TO S
OF GUATEMALA AT 12N92W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE IS RELATIVELY DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER
INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND GUATEMALA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND
EXTENDS TO 09N24W TO 07N31W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N31W TO
07N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 04N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
WEST AFRICA S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 13W-20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM
6N-9N BETWEEN 26W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 45W-
52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W. 5-
15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
COAST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR A COLD FRONT TO DRAPE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND THE LIGHTEST
WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A MONSOON TROUGH EXENDS OVER PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-
11N BETWEEN 76W-86W. ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE MONA CHANNEL ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO E
CUBA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 67W-78W DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE W TIP OF CUBA FROM 21N-23N
BETWEEN 83W-85W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND
PUERTO RICO TO INCLUDE THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED WELL N OF PUERTO RICO
AT 27N65W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

THE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N74W. ANOTHER
1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N79W. A
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS.  SCATTERED
SHOWWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SYSTEM. A STRONG 1034 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N47W AFFECTING THE
STREERING FLOW OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N65W
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 24N BETWEEN 60N-
67N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER
THE NW ATLANTIC N OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT THE
CONVECTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PERSIST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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