[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN AT 26/1500 UTC IS NEAR
17.7N 43.4W. DORIAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 18 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
55 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 17N TO 19N
BETWEEN 42W AND 44W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N SOUTHWARD. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL
SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W...TO 10N21W AND 8N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 8N27W TO 7N34W AND 5N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
22W AND 27W...FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 42W AND 51W...FROM 9N TO
10N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 58W AND
60W IN GUYANA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...AND IT
SPANS THE ENTIRE AREA. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO 28N77W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W
TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N75W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N80W...ACROSS
FLORIDA...TO 28N84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS ABOUT 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE FIRST TROUGH...
BETWEEN 79W AND 86W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS FLORIDA WITHIN 130 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 17N92W BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
WESTERN GUATEMALA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SURROUNDS THE CYCLONIC CENTER.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...TO A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1019 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N89W...TO THE MEXICO GULF
COAST ALONG 24N. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN TEXAS AT THE NAVAL AIR
STATIONS IN KINGSVILLE AND IN CORPUS CHRISTI...AND IN THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED
IN BAY CITY AND VICTORIA IN TEXAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ARE REPORTED IN THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA NEAR MOBILE.
HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM DESTIN WESTWARD. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED
IN BROOKSVILLE AND AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA WESTWARD. THIS WIND HAS MOVED FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN THE 25N64W CYCLONIC CENTER AND
FLORIDA...CROSSING CUBA...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N82W 16N71W 18N64W. SOME OF
THIS WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 25N64W-TO-16N72W TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 17N92W BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
WESTERN GUATEMALA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SURROUNDS THE CYCLONIC CENTER.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS
THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 84W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA
BEYOND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N83W 10N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO
11 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. EXPECT ALSO
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 83W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 25N64W. A TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHWARD FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE MONA PASSAGE...AND TO 16N72W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...IN NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 70W...AND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF HAITI...AT THE MOMENT. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 26/1200 UTC...WAS 0.29 IN ST. THOMAS.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INVERTED TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL
SHIFT WESTWARD...PUTTING HISPANIOLA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH
WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION WILL SPAN THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NO TROPICAL WAVE IS APPARENT FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO 28N77W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO A 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N75W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 28N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 28N84W IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 90 NM
TO THE NORTH OF THE FIRST TROUGH...BETWEEN 79W AND 86W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 70W AND 79W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS FLORIDA WITHIN 130 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 25N64W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER
NORTHWARD TO 31N66W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHWARD FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE MONA PASSAGE...AND TO 16N72W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...IN NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 70W...AND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N66W 27N64W 32N63W

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...THAT ARE
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 25N64W 16N72W TROUGH...
MEET AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW...ROUGHLY IN THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N ALONG 50W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 49W AND 57W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N18W
TO 25N24W AND 20N28W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. ONE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N45W TO 23N22W. A SECOND RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N52W
TO 20N69W.

PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC...AND THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM DORIAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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