[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 39.6W AT 26/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 1350 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W-
NW AT 17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO
55 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. PLEASE SEE THE
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 37W-40W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 88W FROM 21N TO OVER EL SALVADOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
OF GUATEMALA IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N26W TO 12N32W THEN RESUMES S OF
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN NEAR 13N38W AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 8N46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 19W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE GULF ACROSS S
FLORIDA CONTINUING INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY N TO
NE FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH AT 26/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE
W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA TO 27N86W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH E OF 84W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA
TO THE COAST OF TEXAS AND MEXICO WITH A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 23N87W
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W CENTERED OVER
BELIZE WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF E VENEZUELA E OF TRINIDAD.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 9N FROM COLOMBIA TO PANAMA/
COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA S OF 14N. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN IN THE E ATLC IS FORECAST TO MOVE W-NW
REACHING NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SAT THROUGH SUN THEN N
OF VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OF HISPANIOLA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S PENINSULA
OF HAITI W OF 73W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER
HISPANIOLA ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND BEING
ENHANCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE FAR W ATLC N OF 29N W OF 77W TO
OVER NE FLORIDA SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
32N75W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
TO 73W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 70W TO THE ABOVE SURFACE
TROUGH. AN UPPER LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 25N62W COVERING
THE AREA N OF 18N FROM 45W-73W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA WHICH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-33N BETWEEN 54W-66W AND FROM 27N-
30N BETWEEN 43W-53W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL STORM DORIAN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE W-NW REACHING NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE
SAT THROUGH SUN THEN N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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