[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN IS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 35.9W AT 25/1500
UTC OR ABOUT 1565 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING
WNW AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 60 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. PLEASE SEE THE
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 34W-37W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N86W TO
W NICARAGUA AT 12N87W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WAVE IS RELATIVELY DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER INLAND
OVER W HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND
EXTENDS TO 09N20W TO 07N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N24W TO
08N28W TO 11N31W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF TOPICAL STORM DORIAN AT
12N37W AND CONTINUES TO 09N40W TO 08N50W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 06N55W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ALREADY DISCUSSED WITH
THE TROPICAL STORM...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 29W-33W...AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 36W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 25N90W. 5-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF AND CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 27N-30N
BETWEEN 80W-90W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 29N-30N BETWEEN 92W-93W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN
96W-98W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO SHIFT TO S FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A MONSOON TROUGH EXENDS
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 76W-86W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MOSTLY NE FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHILE SW FLOW
IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF HONDURAS...AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO S MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CAMPECHE WITH
SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              A
1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
34N77W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO S GEORGIA.
PREFRONTAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
N OF 27N W OF 72W. A STRONG 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 38N42W AFFECTING THE STREERING FLOW OF TROPICAL
STORM DORIAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N63W PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 55W-61W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NW ATLANTIC
N OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PERSIST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net