[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN IS CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 34.5W AT 25/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 610 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT
15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60
KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. PLEASE SEE THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 32W-36W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N84W TO INLAND
OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA NEAR 16N85W TO COSTA RICA NEAR
10N85W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY
DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE WAVE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/
CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N24W TO 11N29W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN NEAR 10N40W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 8N60W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90
NM OF LINE FROM 12N33W TO 9N42W AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 13W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA THEN SW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC GIVING
THE GULF MOSTLY NE FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH AT 25/0900 UTC
EXTENDS FROM THE GEORGIA COAST ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
NEAR 29N83W TO 28N84W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST NE GULF COAST FROM
TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S
OF 20N W OF 92W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 24N89W LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TONIGHT
THEN LIFT N SAT. OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W CENTERED NEAR
18N85W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OFF
THE COAST OF SURINAME. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 9N FROM
COLOMBIA TO PANAMA/COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N W
OF 76W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 80W-84W. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH
EARLY FRI. TROPICAL STORM DORIAN IN THE E ATLC IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES W-NW REACHING NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATE SAT THROUGH MON.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER HISPANIOLA. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
APPROACH ON TROPICAL STORM DORIAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
TO 70W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 74W-78W AND CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 70W-
76W. AN UPPER LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 23N64W COVERING THE
AREA N OF 19N FROM 54W-70W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 60W-66W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 53W-60W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 75W ANCHORED BY A
1030 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO
THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA LATE TODAY BEFORE STALLING OVERNIGHT
THEN LIFTING N SAT. OTHERWISE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG
INTO SUN. TROPICAL STORM DORIAN IN THE E ATLC IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES W-NW REACHING NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATE SAT INTO MON AND N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO THROUGH LATE MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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