[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN IS CENTERED NEAR 15.1N 33.2W AT 25/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 534 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT
17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. PLEASE SEE THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 29W-35W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N83W TO INLAND
OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA NEAR 15N84W TO COSTA RICA NEAR
10N84W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE
AREA OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED DRY AIR ALOFT
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-13N W OF 82W TO
INLAND OVER NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N21 TO 14N28W
THEN RESUMES W OF T.S. DORIAN NEAR 11N34W TO 8N42W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 6N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 35W-39W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 39W-42W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST TO
INLAND OVER SIERRA LEONE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS TEXAS TO ALONG
THE N GULF COAST GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY NE FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE
TROUGH AT 25/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE GEORGIA COAST ACROSS NE
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N84W TO 29N87W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
FLORIDA AND ALABAMA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SE GULF
EXTENDING FROM 24N81W ACROSS CUBA NEAR HAVANA INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 24N88W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W CENTERED NEAR
17N84W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OFF
THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W
CUBA FROM THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR HAVANA TO 20N82W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION S OF PANAMA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N W
OF 80W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY FRI. T.S. DORIAN IN THE E
ATLC IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES W-NW REACHING
NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SAT THROUGH MON.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE S PENINSULA OF
HAITI WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACH ON T.S. DORIAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
TO 70W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 70W TO
OVER FLORIDA. AN UPPER LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 25N63W
COVERING THE AREA N OF 19N FROM 55W-70W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 55W-66W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
47W-52W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 75W
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES. T.S. DORIAN IN THE E
ATLC IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES W-NW REACHING
NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SAT THROUGH MON. OTHERWISE...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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