[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 250008 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

CORRECTION FOR THE TIME OF THE POSITION OF T.S. DORIAN
FROM 24/0000 UTC TO 23/2100 UTC

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN AT 23/2100 UTC IS NEAR
14.6N 31.4W. THE CENTER OF DORIAN IS ABOUT 810 KM TO THE WEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DORIAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
17 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
55 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 29W AND 32W.
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 29W AND 30W...AND
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 15N32W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREAS
OF SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W...TO 12N18W AND
13N24W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS DISRUPTED BY THE WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL STORM DORIAN. THE MONSOON
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 12N33W TO 8N40W AND 6N49W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 6N49W INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N54W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 8N
BETWEEN 15W AND 24W...ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 24W
AND 40W...AND FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. IT REACHES
ROUGHLY 25N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO
THE WEST OF 75W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INLAND...IN MEXICO...FROM 23N99W
TO 19N104W.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N89W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS ARE REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATIONS...
IN KINGSVILLE AND IN CORPUS CHRISTI...AND IN THE HOUSTON TEXAS
METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED IN PALACIOS
TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE NEW
ORLEANS LOUISIANA METROPOLITAN AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED IN MOBILE ALABAMA.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER FLORIDA FROM
TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD...AND SIMILAR CLOUD CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
CCURRING IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. FAIR
SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION KGBK.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND FROM HONDURAS
TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS AND 93W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 11N79W
18N70W. SOME OF THIS WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 25N64W-TO-17N74W TROUGH.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N78W...CUTTING ACROSS CUBA ALONG
80W...TO 20N81W. THIS TROUGH WAS THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF
ENERGY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 81W/82W TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS AT THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA...
THROUGH PANAMA...BEYOND 85W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED
TO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO
11 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO
9 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 25N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 17N74W OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG HAS BEEN IN HAITI ALONG 19N
BETWEEN 72W AND 73W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN CUBA BETWEEN
75W AND 77W.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
A RIDGE WILL SPAN THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY AN INVERTED TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.
THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WITH
A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION WILL SPAN THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NO TROPICAL WAVE IS APPARENT FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N60W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 25N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 17N74W OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
31N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 48W
AND 74W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE 1016 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT REACHES COLD WATER
IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 20N46W 11N48W.
IT IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 37N38W TO 21N34W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 51W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N63W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W.

PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC...AND THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM DORIAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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