[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN IS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 29.9W ABOUT 356 NM
WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ON 24/1500 UTC. ITS PRESENT
MOVEMENT IS WNW AT 18 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KT
GUSTING TO 55 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
WEAKENING ON THURSDAY AS DORIAN MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 28W-31W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 19N80W TO N
OF PANAMA AT 11N81W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE HAS SPLIT OFF AND IS NOW CONSIDERED A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM THE BAHAMAS AT 24N78W TO N OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT
20N80W MOVING WNW AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N
BAHAMAS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 75W-80W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES TO 14N23W. THE MONSOON
TROF EXTENDS W OF TOPICAL STORM DORIAN FROM 11N33W TO 08N40W TO
07N47W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 5N53W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ALREADY DISCUSSED
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 26W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM MIAMI
FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS. 10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE
NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF AND N
FLORIDA FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 80W-86W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 94W-98W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SE GULF AND S
FLORIDA WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR CONVECTION TO EXPAND TO ALL OF FLORIDA... AND LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. A MONSOON TROUGH EXENDS OVER PANAMA PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 77W-83W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA...AND OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY NORTHERLY FLOW IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA S OF GUATEMALA...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE
TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...
PRESENTLY A VERY SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. EXPECT
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N64W. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO MIAMI FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A 1016 MB LOW IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N55W PRODUCING SCATTERED SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-33N BETWEEN 54W-58W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
33N58W ENHANCING THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR INCREASED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC N OF THE
BAHAMAS DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH. ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION WITH
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW ATLANTIC TO PERSIST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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