[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1022 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR HAS FORMED FROM THE TRPCL WAVE-LOW
SYSTEM AND ITS CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 28.1W ABOUT 269 NM
WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ITS PRESENT MOVEMENT IS WNW AT 17
KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 26W-30W AND SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 06N-15N BETWEEN 24W-34W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 24N76W TO 10N80W AND MOVING
NEAR 5 KT. FOR THE MOST PART THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THE
TIME.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N23W...TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR...10N33W TO 08N36W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N36W TO 07N44W 05N53W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ALREADY
DISCUSSED ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR...ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXES BETWEEN 35W-
52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH
NEAR 27N85W THAT IS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-15
KT. MODERATE MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NE
GULF N OF 27N E OF 85W AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE SW GULF TO CENTRAL MEXICO AND A HIGH CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. OVER THE REMAINDER
GULF...VERY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF WATERS WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. RAINSHOWERS OVER THE NE AND SW GULF ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THE REST OF THE BASIN WILL ENJOY FAIR
WEATHER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN
INTO THE GULF. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN
GULF BY EARLY FRIDAY INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN
THIS REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AT THE TIME. A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR THE MOST PART
IS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 16N W OF
79W. TRADEWINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE BANKING THIS MOISTURE TOWARD
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN REGION OF THESE COUNTRIES
AS WELL AS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COASTLINE OF COSTA RICA. OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OFF THE
HONDURAS COASTLINE. IN THE REMAINDER BASIN...DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
OTHERWISE...TRADEWINDS UP TO 25 KT PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL-
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER WINDS UP TO 15 KT ELSEWHERE.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE WEST COAST OF CUBA
VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY AND THEN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT LIKELY OR WILL BE LIMITED
AS THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE EMBEDDED IN A VERY DRY AIR
ENVIRONMENT.

HISPANIOLA...
VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS IS MAINTAINING A
CONVECTIVE FREE ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING. EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS ENHANCED BY SURFACE DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS
ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MODERATE MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH HIGH
MOISTURE EXTENDING TO THE W ATLC. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 73W-79W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 30N53W TO 27N56W 27N61W. A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS THIS SURFACE FEATURE AS WELL AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 51W-63W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N34W TO 26N39W 24N45W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AT ITS TAIL FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 45W-
47W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N64W AND THE AZORES HIGH.
BESIDES THE AREAS FORMERLY DISCUSSED...FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER ATLC SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
LEVELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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