[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0525 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N24W TO 07N25W
AND MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS WHICH IS
SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER
AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN
23W-32W. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE IN SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE
STARTED LATER THIS MORNING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CUBA
WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 24N75W TO 09N78W AND MOVING NEAR 5 KT.
FOR THE MOST PART THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND
THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THE TIME.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N22W...THE LOW
SYSTEM...11N31W TO 08N36W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N36W TO
05N43W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ALREADY DISCUSSED ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXES BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH
NEAR 26N86W THAT IS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-20
KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING AROUND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. MODERATE MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 85W AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL SCENARIO IS SUPPORTING
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS S OF 20N
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OVER THE REMAINDER GULF...VERY DRY AIR
AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF WATERS WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. RAINSHOWERS OVER THE NE AND SW GULF ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THE REST OF THE BASIN WILL ENJOY FAIR
WEATHER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN
INTO THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AT THE TIME. A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR THE MOST PART
IS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S
OF 15N W OF 79W. STRONG TRADEWINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE BANKING THIS
MOISTURE TOWARD NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF ITS COASTLINES. OVER THE REMAINDER
BASIN...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS IS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...TRADEWINDS UP TO 30 KT PREVAIL OVER
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER WINDS UP TO 15 KT
ELSEWHERE.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE WEST COAST OF CUBA
VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY AND THEN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT LIKELY OR WILL BE LIMITED
AS THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE EMBEDDED IN A VERY DRY AIR
ENVIRONMENT.

HISPANIOLA...
VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS IS MAINTAINING A
CONVECTIVE FREE ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING. EXCEPT FOR
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS ENHANCED BY SURFACE DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MODERATE MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EXTENDS TO
THE W ATLC. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS
FROM 26N-30N W OF 75W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28
N55W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N
BETWEEN 50W-63W. A 1019 MB LOW IS NEAR 30N35W WITH NO CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THE TIME. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING
IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27
N63W AND THE AZORES HIGH. BESIDES THE AREAS FORMERLY
DISCUSSED...FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER ATLC SUPPORTED
BY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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