[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N.
THE FEATURE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N39W. THIS CYCLONIC
CENTER IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND OCEAN
TEMPERATURES BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
21N71W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 17N76W...TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 27N63W. ONE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE CENTER BEYOND
32N65W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO
25N66W 22N72W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN WESTERN
JAMAICA...IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND IN CUBA TO THE WEST OF 80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM HISPANIOLA TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE
NORTH OF 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 48W AND 70W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 16N17W TO 11N30W 10N33W 7N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
7N38W TO 4N47W AND THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 24W AND
36W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 11N TO THE EAST OF 23W...AND
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N37W 7N47W 8N58W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. EARLIER
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED. MULTILAYERED
CLOUD CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY REMAINING PRECIPITATION COVER
FLORIDA FROM 28N TO 30N. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE FLORIDA/
GEORGIA BORDER NORTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND 88W ALONG THE BORDER OF
ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N100W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N94W AND 25N92W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FROM 21N TO 22N
BETWEEN THE MEXICO COAST AND 100W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND EASTERN GUATEMALA...AND TO
HONDURAS ALONG 87W...IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...IN BETWEEN THE CENTRAL AMERICA UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND THE 18N100W MEXICO CYCLONIC CENTER.

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N87W. BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS ARE REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATIONS...IN
KINGSVILLE AND IN CORPUS CHRISTI...IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA...IN TEXAS...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS WITH NEARBY
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED
CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER FLORIDA FROM TALLAHASSEE
WESTWARD...AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THE
TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE LAST FOUR HOURS OR SO. FAIR
SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA ALONG
79W...THROUGH NICARAGUA TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA...TURNING ANTICYCLONICALLY...AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AS IT ENTERS AND CROSSES THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE EAST OF 73W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
21N71W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 17N76W...TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 27N63W. ONE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE CENTER BEYOND
32N65W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO
25N66W 22N72W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN WESTERN
JAMAICA...IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND IN CUBA TO THE WEST OF 80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM HISPANIOLA TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE
NORTH OF 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 48W AND 70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 80W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND WESTERN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED STRONG IN COLOMBIA TO
THE NORTH OF 6N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM PANAMA NEAR 8N TO THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA
BORDER.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10
FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO
17N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W.

HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
21N71W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 17N76W...TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 27N63W. ONE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE CENTER BEYOND
32N65W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO
25N66W 22N72W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN WESTERN
JAMAICA...IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND IN CUBA TO THE WEST OF 80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM HISPANIOLA TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE
NORTH OF 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 48W AND 70W.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE 250
MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH...
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO HISPANIOLA...WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA.
NO TROPICAL WAVE IS APPARENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 32N54W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO 21N47W AND
18N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 48W
AND 70W.

A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N62W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
23N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. THE
36-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N...WITH A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 15N34W. EXPECT 20 KNOT TO 30 KNOT WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 15N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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