[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING
FROM 15N22W TO 09N22W MOVING AT 10 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED
ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N22W. THIS SYSTEM IS IN A HIGH MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS NOTED BY THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
22W-26W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY...THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N70W TO JUST S OF HISPANIOLA AT
17N71W MOVING WNW AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 65W-68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES TO 14N20W. THE MONSOON
TROF EXTENDS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 12N26W TO 07N36W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N36W TO 06N44W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA AT 04N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ALREADY DISCUSSED
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
7N-17N BETWEEN 15W-22W...AND FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 30W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM FT
MYERS FLORIDA TO HOUSTON TEXAS. 10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE
NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF AND N
FLORIDA FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 80W-88W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN
96W-99W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO EXPAND TO ALL OF FLORIDA...
AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER HISPANIOLA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS.
A MONSOON TROUGH EXENDS OVER PANAMA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 77W-83W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
TO GUATEMALA...AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MOSTLY NORTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
80W...WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF
GUATEMALA...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE OVER E CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...
PRESENTLY THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA ARE DEMINISHING
WITH LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS NE OF THE ISLAND.
EXPECT CONTINUED CLEARING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES WNW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N63W. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO FT MYERS FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA N OF 28N W OF 78W. A
WEAK 1018 MB LOW LINGERS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N33W
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N53W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 25N-33N
BETWEEN 48W-62W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR INCREASED
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE BAHAMAS DUE TO THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS DUE TO A
TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW NEAR 30N33W TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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