[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Tue Jul 23 01:03:33 CDT 2013


AXNT20 KNHC 230603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0525 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED WITH A SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE
EASTERN TRPCL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N22W TO 07N23W.
THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE LEVELS WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
09N-15N BETWEEN 21W-25W AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
05N-10N BETWEEN 21W-27W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. AT
THE MOMENT...THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WITH A TILTED AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 21N66W TO 16N70W AND
MOVING NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND AT THE MOMENT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL THE MONA PASSAGE.
HOWEVER...MIDDLE LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW MAY ASSIST IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION AS THE WAVE CONTINUE A W-NW TRACK ACROSS THE ISLAND
TODAY.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES TO 14N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N24W TO 08N31W 06N38W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION ALREADY DISCUSSED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED
TSTMS IS FROM 07N-15N E OF 19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110
NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH
NEAR 27N84W THAT IS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-15
KT. EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF N OF 28N...VERY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE LEVELS ACROSS THE BASIN IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
OVER THE NE GULF...A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE LEVELS AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE SUPPORTING A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 28N
BETWEEN 84W-89W.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF WATERS UNTIL VERY
EARLY THURSDAY WHEN IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. RAINSHOWERS OVER THE
NE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL VERY LATE ON TUESDAY BUT
THE REST OF THE BASIN WILL ENJOY FAIR WEATHER AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS
MORNING GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ADVECTING MODERATE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS MAY DEVELOPED OVER
THE ISLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ASSISTED BY MIDDLE LEVEL
DIVERGENT FLOW. A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 14N WHICH COMBINED
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER
NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS WITHIN 80 NM OF
THE NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTLINES W OF 81W.
ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W-83W. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS IS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...TRADEWINDS UP TO 25 KT PREVAIL OVER
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER WINDS UP TO 15 KT
ELSEWHERE.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF HAITI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO EASTERN CUBA WHERE INTERACTION WITH THE
TERRAIN AND VERY DRY AIR MAY ACT TO VANISH THIS WAVE.

HISPANIOLA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS
MORNING WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N66W TO 16N70W. THE WAVE IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND IS ADVECTING MODERATE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE ISLAND. RAINSHOWERS MAY DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLAND AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES ASSISTED BY MIDDLE LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW.
WEATHER IMPROVES ON WEDNESDAY BUT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 46W-66W SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 51W-61W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB LOW NEAR 30N31W TO 27N34W
27N39W...NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THE TIME.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN
ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGHS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. BESIDES
THE AREAS FORMERLY DISCUSSED...FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER ATLC SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
LEVELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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