[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N21W TO 08N22W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 15W-
25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS FROM
22N63W TO 14N65W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE AXIS IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. A SAL OUTBREAK SPREADS
ACROSS THE ATLC TO JUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 63W-67W TO
INCLUDE PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-
17N BETWEEN 67W-70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES TO 13N20W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH CONTINUES ON THE W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 12N24W TO
07N38W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 25W-35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 10-15 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. ONSHORE FLOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 81W-90W TO
INCLUDE N FLORIDA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W PRODUCING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
GEORGIA NEAR 33N85W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER N
FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF...AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING TOWARDS
HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA. ELSEWHERE A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N
COLOMBIA AT 09N75W TO COSTA RICA AT 10N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 79W-84W. IN ADDITION
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA
TO GUATEMALA. MORE SHOWERS ARE W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 18N-
20N BETWEEN 82W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NE FLOW IS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN ABOVE THE TROPICAL WAVE
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE
CONVECTION TO REACH AS FAR AS JAMAICA AND E CUBA. ALSO EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
TODAY LIMITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
START TO DETERIORATE WITHIN 12 HOURS AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N59W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE BAHAMAS N OF 25N BETWEEN 72W-80W.
A SMALL 1019 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N31W
WITHA TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 29N32W. THE LOW IS MOVING SW
AT 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW AND
TROUGH AXIS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
33N25W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N-34N BETWEEN 46W-59W.
EXPECT CONVETION TO BE N OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT THE ATLANTIC LOW TO BE NEAR 29N34W WITH SHOWERS. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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