[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N48W TO 9N51W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120
NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 15N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N83W TO 10N84W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W AS DEPICTED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 14N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER COSTA RICA
AND NICARAGUA.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM 21N95W
ACROSS S MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 18N96W MOVING W-
NW 20-25 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
THAT COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER MEXICO AND NOT IN THE GULF WATERS. THIS
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MEXICO AND IS LEAVING THE GULF
BASIN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 20N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N21W 6N27W TO 5N33W WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N40W 6N47W 8N53W TO 8N58W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 15W-23W...
FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 24W-37W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 54W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER N LOUISIANA EXTENDING S INTO THE
NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N TO OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 86W-96W.
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF ANCHORED NEAR 27N84W. AN UPPER
LOW IS IN THE W ATLC TO OVER FLORIDA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND WITHIN
45/60 NM ALONG THE W COAST BETWEEN CEDAR KEY AND KEY WEST. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN BETWEEN 87W-92W.
OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NW AND N CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MON THEN WILL SHIFT FROM SW FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS TUE
THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
N OF 16N W OF 75W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA TO
17N LEAVING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR
9N76W ACROSS PANAMA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N W OF 79W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA LEAVING NO SURFACE FEATURES TO
GENERATE ACTIVITY. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF 84W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE W THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT
INTO SUN. THE TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN LATE SUN NIGHT PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
MON NIGHT AND TUE THEN WEAKEN OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WED AND THU.
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA INTO SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CENTRAL HAITI
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER W HISPANIOLA WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF
HISPANIOLA MON AND TUE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 28N71W COVERING
THE AREA W OF 62W TO OVER FLORIDA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 22N W OF 75W AND FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 66W-70W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC
AND EXTENDS W OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1024 HIGH IN
THE W ATLC NEAR 28N67W AND A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 30N37W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC IS SUPPORTING A
WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT BORDERS THE N PERIPHERY OF THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC. THE NOAA GOES-R SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN
AIR LAYER COVERING THE E ATLC WITHIN 425 NM OF LINE FROM 13N43W
ALONG 23N24W TO BEYOND 32N16W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ALONG
28N THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net