[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 20N46W TO
16N49W TO 9N49W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE AXIS LIES WITHIN A
MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
THE WAVE IS IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF DRY
AIR AND DUST THAT EXTENDS E TO WEST AFRICA FROM 2N-28N. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 19N81W TO 10N81W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE AXIS LIES WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM
22N92W TO 14N92W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATED CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
19N16W TO 10N23W TO 06N31W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N31W TO
08N45W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 08N51W EXTENDS
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 07N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 20W-23W...FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
26W-33W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 57W-63W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                              A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION W OF
THE AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO DUE TO A 1024 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
LOUISIANA AT 32N93W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THIS CENTER IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 86W-95W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N72W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THIS CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND
FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO SHIFT
WNW WITH SOME CLEARING OVER W CUBA...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
OVER THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
TO PANAMA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER W CUBA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 80W-
84W...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 80W-85W. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF N VENEZUELA AND N
COLOMBIA S OF 13N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHERLY FLOW IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER LEVEL COL AREA IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF HONDURAS TO HAVE CONTINUE CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT LIMITING ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W. A
1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N33W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS WELL E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES PRODUCING
SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
26N72W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE N
BAHAMAS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 76W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE N OF 26N W OF 74W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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