[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N35W 16N37W 10N38W
10N33W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N TO
15N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N67W
19N70W 17N71W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WAVE CUTS
ACROSS PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS COVERING THE ISLAND AT
18/2315 UTC. SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED...MOSTLY IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NUMEROUS STRONG REMAINS IN SOUTHWESTERN
HAITI FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. ONE CELL OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 71W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W TO THE SOUTH OF
14N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS MIXED WITH MONSOON TROUGH PRECIPITATION.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 45 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 9N73W 9N76W 10N79W 11N82W 12N83W 12N84W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W
TO 12N20W 10N25W 10N28W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 10N28W TO 11N36W
10N41W...THROUGH FRENCH GUIANA...TO 3N55W IN SOUTHEASTERN
SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 7N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 30N90W IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CENTER WAS ON TOP OF
TAMPA FLORIDA A FEW DAYS AGO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N84W
27N87W 24N89W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST...FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO 20N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE
EAST OF 90W...AND FROM 22N TO 24N TO THE WEST OF 90W...ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE.

HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT IS REPORTING A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING.
A THUNDERSTORM IS NEAR THE AIRPORT IN LAFOURCHE LOUISIANA. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
METROPOLITAN AREA. THE VISIBILITY IS 1/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG IN
PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND LIGHT
RAIN ARE OBSERVED IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS IN VALPARAISO FLORIDA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS
BROOKSVILLE TALLAHASSEE. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
AREA FROM TAMPA TO SARASOTA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KMZG...OFF
THE TEXAS COAST...AND KDLP OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 14N67W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 14N67W CENTER...THROUGH
THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 20N68W. THIS INVERTED TROUGH HAS BEEN
MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS ADJACENT TO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...WESTWARD FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 24 HOURS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER
THAT IS NEAR 8N77W...THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...TO SOUTHERN
MEXICO THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND TO THE WEST OF GUATEMALA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N67W
19N70W 17N71W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WAVE CUTS
ACROSS PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS COVERING THE ISLAND AT
18/2315 UTC. SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED...MOSTLY IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NUMEROUS STRONG REMAINS IN SOUTHWESTERN
HAITI FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. ONE CELL OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 71W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 11N81W IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 45 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 9N73W 9N76W 10N79W 11N82W 12N83W 12N84W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W AND FROM 11N TO 17N
BETWEEN 75W AND 82W. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST INDICATES EAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
17N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

HISPANIOLA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N
TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS RACING WESTWARD...MOVING
COMPARATIVELY FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE
WAVE SHOULD BE AFFECTING HISPANIOLA TODAY.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER THE
AREA. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. EASTERLY WIND WILL COVER
THE AREA FOR DAY TWO OF THE PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST
SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. HISPANIOLA EITHER WILL BE IN A COL OR AT
THE EDGE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...OR AT THE EDGE OF A TROUGH
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 31N73W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS FLORIDA. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE 31N73W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE REST OF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 65W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N20W TO
31N32W...TO 28N47W AND 28N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 42W AND 64W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N24W TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N38W...TO A SECOND 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N56W...TO 30N77W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N55W TO 19N39W.
EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN
8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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