[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 180604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N26W
15N28W 9N28W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
IN THE ITCZ FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N62W
16N64W 12N64W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND
71W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE
COMPARATIVELY MORE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA MAY
NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N76W
14N77W 11N77W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA OF THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN
65W AND 70W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA
NEAR 18N16W TO 17N18W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 8N30W...
TO 8N38W 5N47W...TO 5N53W AT THE COAST OF FRENCH
GUIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W...AND FROM 5N TO
8N BETWEEN 43W AND 53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 35W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 59W AND 71W...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE
COVERS THE AREA. MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERS ARE PRESENT IN THE AREA...IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. ONE IS NEAR 29N63W. A SECOND CENTER IS NEAR
28N71W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
31N72W 27N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE BETWEEN 57W AND 72W TO THE NORTH OF 20N.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
FROM A 20N74W 30N80W RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THAT IS BETWEEN 71W AND 80W. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ARE UNDER THE RIDGE.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 28N85W OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF
86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EARLIER STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AN
AREA OF DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...TO THE NORTH OF 18N
TO THE WEST OF 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS
THERE.

A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING AS ITS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROAD MULTILAYERED NORTHERLY-TO-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA.
ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA...LOW LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS STRETCH FROM MILTON TO CRESTVIEW. LIGHT
DRIZZLE IS IN PANAMA CITY. A LOW CLOUD/MIDDLE CLOUD
CEILING COVERS TALLAHASSEE...AND MARATHON KEY.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS
KMZG...KEIR...AND KDLP. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
IS AT THE ICAO STATION KEMK. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES
AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

EARLIER STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AN
AREA OF DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...TO THE NORTH OF 18N
TO THE WEST OF 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS
THERE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA OF THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN
65W AND 70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W 10N82W...ACROSS
COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND 9N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ON
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. NUMEROUS STRONG
ALSO IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 82W AND 84W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N
BETWEEN 70W AND 82W.

HISPANIOLA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N62W
16N64W 12N64W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND
71W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE
COMPARATIVELY MORE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA MAY
NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE. THE WAVE SHOULD
AFFECT HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS EASTERLY WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 30 HOURS OR SO...
FOLLOWED BY SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB STARTS WITH HISPANIOLA
IN A RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE 250 MB GFS SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL START ON TOP
OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY THE TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW...FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N23W TO 29N30W
27N39W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 28N49W...TO 29N70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE 21N35W 17N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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