[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 22W AND 26W IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 63W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE WATERS THAT
ARE BETWEEN 65W AND 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W TO
12N20W 8N24W AND 6N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES 6N30W TO 4N41W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N
TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 7N ALONG
13W...FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 8N26W 7N31W 7N37W...FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 39W AND
46W...AND FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 90W...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE COVERS THE AREA.
MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE PRESENT IN THE AREA.
ONE IS NEAR 29N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SECOND CENTER IS
NEAR 28N82W IN WESTERN FLORIDA. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 69W/70W FROM 23N TO 30N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM 23N TO 28N
BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
27N TO 29N BETWEEN 67W AND 68W...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N
TO 20N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
22N TO 29N TO THE EAST OF 90W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N91W OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SECOND
CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 21N96W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. A THIRD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N95W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 97W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 91W AND 95W...AND IN COASTAL TEXAS FROM 29N INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W.

LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER THE
TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER PARTS OF
TEXAS FROM HOUSTON TO GALVESTON. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN THE
NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS
IN LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS IN FLORIDA...IN FORT
MYERS AND IN BROOKSVILLE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION KBBF. A
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE ICAO STATIONS KBBF...
KEIR...AND KCRH. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000
FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
EASTERN HONDURAS...TO 15N75W...TO 17N68W...BEYOND 20N63W. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE WATERS THAT
ARE BETWEEN 65W AND 70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND
BEYOND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...AND INLAND IN COLOMBIA...AND IN
EASTERN PANAMA...FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 80W AND
86W IN NICARAGUA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE WATERS THAT
ARE BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF PUERTO RICO.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB STARTS WITH HISPANIOLA IN A RIDGE.
THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. AN INVERTED TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST
FOR 500 MB STARTS WITH HISPANIOLA IN A RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS...AND THEN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE SECOND 48 HOUR TIME
PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND EVENTUALLY COVERS THE AREA. THE 250
MB GFS SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 36
HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N35W TO
28N39W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 30W
AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 30N30W...TO 28N45W...TO
A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N57W...TO 30N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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