[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N20W
15N22W 10N21W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
8N TO 11N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N53W
15N55W 11N55W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
16N TO 21N BETWEEN 51W AND 61W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W TO
THE SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA OF THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA
NEAR 21N16W TO 13N22W AND 7N32W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 7N32W TO 4N43W...THROUGH BRAZIL INTO FRENCH
GUIANA NEAR 4N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W.
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 13W...
AND FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 2N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 44W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST
OF 60W...MAINLY BETWEEN 44W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 90W...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE
COVERS THE AREA. MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERS ARE PRESENT IN THE AREA. ONE IS NEAR
29N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SECOND CENTER IS
NEAR 28N82W IN WESTERN FLORIDA. ONE SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 31N70W 28N69W 25N68W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 30N83W 28N85W 27N85W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 79W AND
85W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N TO 27N
BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH
OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 73W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 22N91W OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 21N96W.
A THIRD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N95W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N96W 25N96W 21N95W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 28N
TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS BETWEEN 91W AND
95W...ALONG THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N97W...ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST FROM 19N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 93W...
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 19N IN THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
94W AND 96W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W.

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER
PARTS OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS
KBBF...KSPR...KIPN...AND KDLP. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING IS AT THE ICAO STATION KCRH. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LINE THAT RUNS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS...TO 15N75W...
TO 17N68W...BEYOND 20N63W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W TO
THE SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA OF THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 75W IN
COLOMBIA...TO 81W...CROSSING WESTERN PANAMA AND
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 9N84W INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W
IN COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA AND COASTAL WATERS.
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 81W AND
82W...AND IN SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA FROM
11N TO 12N ALONG 84W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT EAST WINDS AND
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
70W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W TO
THE SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA OF THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE. THIS WAVE IS
ABOUT 240 NM TO THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA AND IT
SHOULD BE REACHING HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB STARTS WITH HISPANIOLA
IN A RIDGE. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD...
KEEPING THE AREA UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.
AN INVERTED TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY THE
END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
FORECAST FOR 500 MB STARTS WITH HISPANIOLA IN A
RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND THEN FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE SECOND 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND EVENTUALLY COVERS THE AREA.
THE 250 MB GFS SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL COVER THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY
AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N37W TO 28N41W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 28N33W...TO
A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N44W...
TO 25N63W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 15N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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