[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N50W TO 10N49W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WRAPS AROUND THE WAVE LIMITING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N62W OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
10N58W W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRAILS THIS
WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 61W-64W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA THROUGH A WEAK 1010 MB
LOW INLAND OVER MAURITANIA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W
THEN CONTINUES ALONG 14N20W TO 6N31W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 4N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-12N E
OF 21W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE SW GULF NEAR 22N92W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 26N96W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
19N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 91W-95W. AN UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE NW GULF ANCHORED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-96W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
W ATLC IS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND S
FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE E OF 83W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF GULF THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W ANCHORED
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N BETWEEN 78W-
85W. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
FAR E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W
OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N79W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 80W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE E CARIBBEAN FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS DAMPENED OUT...THUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BEEN GENERATED. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND WILL PASS S OF HISPANIOLA
THU AND FRI INCREASING THE CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W TO ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE DOMINATE UPPER
LOW OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. THIS UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST FROM JUST
OFF VERO BEACH TO RIGHT ON THE COAST NEAR MIAMI ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N79W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 21N AND S OF LINE FROM 24N69W TO
OVER FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
30N69W TO 23N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 225/250 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N38W. SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE
INLAND TODAY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTENDS WEST TODAY THEN DRIFT S
TO 32N WED AND 30N THU THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net