[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W...
MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE POSITION AGREES
WITH LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 700 MB GFS
TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE ITCZ FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN
42W AND 55W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N61W
14N60W 11N57W MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N55W 14N58W 18N59W...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 8N20W AND 6N26W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N26W TO 6N30W AND 5N34W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 11W AND 17W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO
9N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 86W...AND INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN
55W AND FLORIDA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE
COVERS THE AREA. MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERS ARE PRESENT IN THE AREA. ONE IS NEAR 27N68W.
A SECOND ONE IS NEAR 27N79W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH
IS ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 28N79W TO 24N77W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N64W 23N64W
20N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N74W 23N76W 26N78W...FROM 23N
TO 24N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W...AND FROM 28N TO 29N
BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 23N93W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 100W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N90W 24N87W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 21N TO 25N
BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W...AND
FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W.

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...FROM HOUSTON
TO BEAUMONT. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED
AT THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
MULTILAYERED CEILINGS ARE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS
KEMK AND KIPN. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE
ICAO STATION KEIR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 20N63W 16N70W 12N78W.

SOME OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH COLOMBIA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD. SOME OF IT
BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND NICARAGUA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE
CYCLONIC ENVELOPE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TOWARD THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N61W
14N60W 11N57W MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N55W 14N58W 18N59W...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N/8N BETWEEN 73W IN
COLOMBIA...BEYOND 83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
5N TO 11N BETWEEN FROM 5N TO 9N WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 80W...AND IN PANAMA FROM 8N TO 11N
BETWEEN 80W AND 82W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT EAST WINDS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND
76W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN
68W AND 78W.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE 17N61W 14N60W 11N57W TROPICAL WAVE MAY REACH
HISPANIOLA BY WEDNESDAY. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES IT AT THE
MOMENT.

THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 500 MB AND 700 MB SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 250 MB
GFS FORECAST SHOWS A TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FOR
THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N42W TO 27N44W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT REACHES 32N34W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N23W TO A 1025 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N32W...TO 28N40W
28N50W AND 28N60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 42 HOUR FORECAST OF 20 KNOT
WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 14N TO 20N
TO THE EAST OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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