[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W...MOVING WESTWARD
15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WAVE WAS ALONG 28W/29W SIX HOURS AGO. THE
WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH LONG-TERM SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 700 MB GFS TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ITCZ FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND
40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N52W 10N50W MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN
52W AND 54W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE MAY REACH THE THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY ON TUESDAY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO
8N19W AND 9N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N23W TO 11N36W 10N41N
8N47W AND 6N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N5W 4N11W
6N19W 7N21W 7N24W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N
TO 15N BETWEEN 29W AND 45W...TO THE SOUTH OF 9N BETWEEN 49W AND
57W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 26N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FLORIDA...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA...
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 58W AND
FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 23N TO
29N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 30N IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...BETWEEN 52W AND FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND
65W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 76W/77W FROM 24N TO 31N. THIS TROUGH
HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD STEADILY DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS.

A SURFACE TROUGH APPEARED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS LATE
AS 14/1945 UTC...ALONG 57W/58W FROM 19N TO 22N. IT IS NOW ALONG
61W FROM 17N TO 23N...APPROACHING THE AREA THAT IS COVERED BY
THE 26N65W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW SPINS OFF THE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE OKLAHOMA CYCLONIC
CENTER...ACROSS TEXAS...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE 30N91W 19N96W TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 28N85W
25N84W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N87W AT THE COAST OF HONDURAS.

WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 29N TO
THE EAST OF 87W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
NEAR 20N97W.

A THIN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N91W
24N91W...CURVING TO 19N96W IN THE SOUTHWEST-ERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N TO
26N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N TO 20N IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BETWEEN 88W AND 91W NEAR GUATEMALA.

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE MOBILE
ALABAMA DOWNTOWN GENERAL AIRPORT. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
REPORTED IN FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF PERRY...AND FROM BROOKSVILLE
TO TAMPA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN PUNTA GORDA... AT
MARATHON KEY...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. FAIR
SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION KMZG...AND A
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KEIR.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N65W
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CENTER...INCLUDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.

THE 28N85W TO 16N87W RIDGE COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 17N TO 23N...CROSSING
THROUGH HAITI. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBA COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND 75W.

A SURFACE TROUGH APPEARED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS LATE
AS 14/1945 UTC...ALONG 57W/58W FROM 19N TO 22N. IT IS
APPROACHING THE AREA THAT IS COVERED BY THE 26N65W MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 57W AND 65W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...BASED ON THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 15/0000 UTC...ARE 0.21 TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND
0.13 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 80W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF URABA OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...AND WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS OF 7N80W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 17N TO 23N...CROSSING
THROUGH HAITI. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBA COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND 75W.

THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 500 MB AND 700 MB SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
COVERING THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 250 MB FORECAST SHOWS A
TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO
29N47W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N40W TO 31N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 25N24W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N27W...TO 30N29W 27N40W AND TO 26N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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