[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W TO
THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 5 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 8N TO
14N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N49W 13N48W
9N46W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 17N
BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY ON TUESDAY.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS
OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W AND 11N26W. THE
ITCZ STARTS NEAR 10N31W AND IT CONTINUES TO 10N36W AND
11N42W 9N48W 7N53W 7N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 3N TO 14N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 26N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERING THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 26N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 58W AND FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 22N TO 26N
BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 30N IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...BETWEEN 57W AND FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALSO TO THE SOUTH OF 22N IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 57W
AND 65W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N75W 28N74W 25N73W.
THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD STEADILY
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS.

A SURFACE TROUGH APPEARED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS LATE AS 14/1945 UTC...ALONG 57W/58W
FROM 19N TO 22N. IT IS APPROACHING THE AREA THAT
IS COVERED BY THE 26N65W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. THE TROUGH SHOWS UP NOW
IN SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY ALONG 60W/61W
FROM 19N TO 22N.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA. NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW SPINS OFF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE OKLAHOMA CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS TEXAS...
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 29N91W
25N92W 20N97W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
28N85W 25N84W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N87W AT THE
COAST OF HONDURAS.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 86W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N87W TO 22N96W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N90W TO 18N94W IN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG IS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N TO 20N.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF THE WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N65W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC
CENTER...INCLUDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.

THE 28N85W TO 16N87W RIDGE COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N71W...JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 17N71W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN HAITI FROM 18N
TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND FROM 19N TO 20N
BETWEEN 76W AND 77W BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA.

A SURFACE TROUGH APPEARED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS LATE AS 14/1945 UTC...ALONG 57W/58W FROM
19N TO 22N. IT IS APPROACHING THE AREA THAT IS
COVERED BY THE 26N65W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CENTER.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO TO THE SOUTH OF 22N
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA BETWEEN 57W AND 65W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...BASED ON THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...
MIATPTPAN...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/0000 UTC...
ARE 0.21 TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.13 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...
THROUGH EASTERN PANAMA AND 8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND
8N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W...
AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 82W AND 83W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N71W...JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 17N71W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN HAITI FROM 18N
TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND FROM 19N TO 20N
BETWEEN 76W AND 77W BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA.

THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 500 MB AND 700 MB SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS...FOLLWED BY A RIDGE FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE 250 MB FORECAST SHOWS A TROUGH
COVERING THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N46W TO 29N47W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 31N42W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 32N TO 34N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO 26N25W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N31W...TO 27N39W TO 26N53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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