[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N27W TO
8N26W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N46W
TO 7N39W W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDS FROM 20N92W ACROSS
S MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 17N93W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA DEEP MOISTURE THAT
COVERS PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE GULF BASIN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N24W TO 9N33W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N40W
THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 9N43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 16W-19W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-
36W...FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 42W-47W...AND S OF 5N TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
KANSAS AND A SECOND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N91W. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAK 1013 MB LOW NEAR 29N86W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 27N90W THEN
CONTINUES S-SW TO 21N93W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE GULF E OF 93W INCLUDING FLORIDA WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 86W-
90W. THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N BETWEEN 92W-96W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 45 NM ALONG
THE COAST BETWEEN VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA AND CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOWS AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W ANCHORED OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS W OF 84W TO
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W TO ACROSS PANAMA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N78W. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE
BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS COULD INCREASE
WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL DOT THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE JUST S OF THE ISLAND TUE EVENING INCREASING THE
CHANCE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 25N77W
TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA NEAR 31N81W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NE
FLORIDA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N W OF 78W. AN UPPER LOW IS
OVER THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N64W COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N
W OF 54W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO
25N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-
25N BETWEEN 59W-63W...FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 57W-68W...AND WITHIN
90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
NEAR 30N32W AND A 1027 MB HIGH N-NW OF BERMUDA. SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE W TO OVER FLORIDA BY TUE WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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