[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
17N23W TO 7N24W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGHLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITH 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N41W TO 7N39W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM
23N88W TO 15N90W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-
23N BETWEEN 85W-88W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N17W TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N30W TO 11N37W THEN RESUMES W OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N41W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A 1014 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N94W. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF FROM
23N-28N BETWEEN 80W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED OVER S FLORIDA. EXPECT CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA
WITH CONVECTION AND SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS THE PRIMARY FEATURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO S MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS
PERSIST OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
W WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...
RECENT LIGHTNING DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SHOWERS HAVE
DIMINISHED OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP OVER
HISPANIOLA DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
30N69W TO 24N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
30N31W. IN THE TROPICS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N63W
MOVING W AND SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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