[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N34W
TO 10N35W DRIFTING W. THE LOCATION OF THE WAVE IS WITH THE MID
LEVEL LOW NEAR 11N34W RATHER THAN THE UPPER LEVEL LOCATION OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 33W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 23N83W
TO OVER HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 77W AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 260
NM E OF THE WAVE N OF 16N TO ACROSS CUBA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N20W TO 9N30W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N36W AND CONTINUES ALONG
9N49W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E
OF 26W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW GULF ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE GULF WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH
ENTERS THE NE GULF ACROSS TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA AND EXTENDS ALONG
27N90W TO 28N96W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75/90 NM SE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE S GULF
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N81W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE S/CENTRAL GULF AND IS ANCHORED BY
A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 26N92W. SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND DISSIPATE BY SAT EVENING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION SUN THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W AND IS
ANCHORED OVER HONDURAS AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOTTING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 80W TO OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 12N82W
TO ACROSS NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 77W UNDER REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND INTO YUCATAN
PENINSULA SAT NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL ATLC WILL MOVE W
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DOTTING HISPANIOLA THIS
EVENING. THE DEEP MOISTURE HAS MOVED W OF THE ISLAND LIMITING
HEAVY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
STILL DOT THE ISLAND THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND MID WEEK INCREASING THE CHANCE
OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W
AND COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 26N W OF 77W. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER FLORIDA ARE MOVING E
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 30N72W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N
BETWEEN 73W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 29N78W TO 33N76W. A SECOND UPPER LOW
IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 27N61W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N60W TO 24N59W AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN
57W-65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N36W AND A 1024 MB HIGH
NE NEAR BERMUDA. W/CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W
TOWARDS FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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