[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W
TO THE SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN LONG-TERM INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 33W AND 35W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W TO
THE SOUTH OF 22N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
THE WAVE IS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE ENERGY THAT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
17N TO 23N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W INCLUDING IN CUBA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS
OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 8N20W AND 8N23W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N23W TO 10N33W 10N36W AND 6N47W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND 24W...
FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W...AND IN THE WATERS
THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 9N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INCLUDING THE AREAS THAT
ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF
26N...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS A
24N81W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO A SECOND AND
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER 23N91W SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO CYCLONIC CENTER...TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER
THAT IS IN INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 23N103W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
THAT COVERS FLORIDA AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 25N
TO 27N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 21N
BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N84W TO 29N87W AND 29N89W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA...INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 28N90W IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 28N95W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
TO THE NORTH OF 27N IN THE WATER BETWEEN 84W AND
95W...AND IN FLORIDA FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 81W AND
83W.

A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N92W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA-TO-28N95W SURFACE TROUGH.

HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN TEXAS...AT THE NAVAL AIR
STATIONS IN KINGSVILLE AND IN CORPUS CHRISTI...AND
IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN TEXAS...FROM
PALACIOS TO BAY CITY TO ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...
LOW CLOUD TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
AREA FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL
PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. BROKEN LOW AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
ALABAMA...AND IN FLORIDA FROM MARY ESTHER TO
VALPARAISO. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
AREA IN FLORIDA FROM PANAMA CITY TO APALACHICOLA
TO MARIANNA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN FORT MYERS...
BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SARASOTA. BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE IN THE TAMPA
METROPOLITAN AREA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR
LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION
KEIR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW
CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...BECOMING NORTHERLY AS THE FLOW CURVES
AND HEADS TOWARD PANAMA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
VENEZUELA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO
THE EAST OF 70W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...BASED ON THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...
MIATPTPAN...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200 UTC...
ARE 1.35 IN KINGSTON JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N...FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA
THROUGH PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
THE RAIN THAT WAS OCCURRING IN THE NICARAGUA COASTAL
WATERS HAS WEAKENED. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN
72W AND 78W.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA CURRENTLY.

THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 500 MB AND 700 MB SHOW A RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE 250 MB FORECAST SHOWS A RIDGE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N78W NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS TO 23N80W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. THIS TROUGH
REPRESENTS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ENERGY THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL. THE TROUGH
HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE TIME OF THE 12/1200 SURFACE
MAP ANALYSIS. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND
WHERE IT WAS IS SOUTHERLY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN DOES NOT REFLECT MUCH OF A TROUGH ANYMORE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD TO 30N BETWEEN
70W AND FLORIDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
32N75W 28N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 29N61W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 49W
AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 57W/58W FROM 22N
TO 32N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 52W AND 66W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 26N70W...
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 18N70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 18N...TO THE NORTH OF 23N
BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...WITH THE 28N78W 23N80W
SURFACE TROUGH...TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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