[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111805
TWDAT

ZCZC MIAWRKMT5 ALL
TTAA00  111805

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG IS ALONG 73W/74W FROM 20N
TO 24N. THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF CHANTAL...AND IT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...INTO THE
BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W...
AND FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY IF NECESSARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS IS ALONG
30W/31W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N...MOVING WESTWARD
10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ AND IT COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL 700 MB
TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ITCZ FROM
9N TO 15N BETWEEN 29W AND 31W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS 16N43W 12N45W
8N46W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...AND IT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL TROUGH. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISSIPATED YESTERDAY...
OPENING ITSELF INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...THAT NOW
IS ALONG 76W/77W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. THE WAVE CUTS
ACROSS JAMAICA...AND IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO
20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM JAMAICA NEAR 18N TO CUBA NEAR 21N...
BETWEEN 76W AND 79W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS
OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W...TO 10N20W AND 12N26W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N26W TO 13N28W...10N34W...
7N43W AND 4N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ITCZ
FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 29W AND 39W...AND WITHIN
45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N43W 7N49W 7N51W 5N55W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTERIOR MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 23N81W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN CUBA AND
COVERING THE BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND CUBA...TO A 23N89W SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 23N96W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO AN INLAND MEXICO
22N101W CYCLONIC CENTER. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH AND THE INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC
CENTERS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF
26N. SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 83W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERN WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N. THIS WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE TROUGH...THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH OF 26N.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N83W IN FLORIDA...TO
28N84W AND 24N84W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 88W. SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 86W IN FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N91W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 85W AND TEXAS/MEXICO
COASTS.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA.
FAIR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST
PLAINS. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW LEVEL
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO 72W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND MOVES FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD
HISPANIOLA.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...BASED ON THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...
MIATPTPAN...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/1200 UTC...
ARE 0.88 FOR FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...AND 0.76 IN
KINGSTON JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO
9N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA TO 11N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 18N
BETWEEN 70W AND 76W.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA.

THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 500 MB AND 700 MB SHOW THE
AREA TO BE IN A RIDGE FOR THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AT 250 MB ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 32N57W. ONE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 24N52W 20N52W AND
15N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO
31N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 24N
TO 30N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N
TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N69W 24N62W 20N55W 24N50W 30N50W BEYOND
32N43W.

A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
WESTWARD FROM THE 32N57W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 31N65W
31N77W AND 29N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N30W 27N33W AND 26N40W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N26W CYCLONIC CENTER
TO 27N30W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...FROM 33N35W TO 30N40W. THIS
FEATURE IS MOVING TOWARD THE 32N30W 26N40W TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N63W...TO 25N70W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF 25N TO THE WEST OF THE 53W/54W SURFACE TROUGH.

A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N32W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF 20N TO THE EAST OF THE 53W/54W SURFACE TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24N72W 20N74W SURFACE TROUGH...
AND THE SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH TO 72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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