[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW AT 2100
UTC. THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 73.7W AT
2100 UTC OR ABOUT 200 NM E-SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 225
NM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MOVING W 20 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT CHANTAL HAS LOST ITS LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION THUS THE REASON FOR THE DOWNGRADE AND WILL DEPICTED
AS A TROPICAL WAVE ON THE 11/0000 UTC MAP. THIS WAS THE LAST
ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ALTHOUGH
CHANTAL IS NO LONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE IT CAN STILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA... CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLAND EXTENDS FROM 17N25W
TO 9N26W MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N37W TO 6N40W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10
KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE
THAT ENCOMPASSES THE PRECEDING TROPICAL WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOW INLAND OVER
S MEXICO AND IS NO LONGER IN THE ATLC BASIN DISCUSSION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W CONTINUING TO 13N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N28W AND CONTINUES TO 8N38W THEN RESUMES W
OF THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N42W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N47W
TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND AND APPROACHING THE COAST OF W AFRICA
BETWEEN 10N-16N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150/180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 26W-37W AND
WITHIN 120 N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 37W46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CONUS ANCHORED AND
OVER THE DESERT SW WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE VIRGINIA
COAST GIVING THE N GULF OF MEXICO NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER
RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS AND IS
PUSHING THEM TO WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM SE LOUISIANA
TO FLORIDA. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N81W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 23N ACROSS THE ENTIRE S GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO OVER TEXAS WITH A 1018
MB HIGH NEAR 28N90W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU THEN
RETREAT EASTWARD. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SINK INTO THE
N/CENTRAL GULF FRI NIGHT THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE BY SAT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF
16N BETWEEN 68W-75W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W AND IS ANCHORED OVER NICARAGUA. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 21N W
OF 83W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N75W ALONG 10N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 9N84W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N W
OF 77W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT S OF HAITI ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL. THE TROPICAL WAVE...REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
WILL MOVE NW THROUGH FRI FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
ISLAND THIS EVENING DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL. RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL IS S OF 24N TO OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES BETWEEN 67W-75W. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA COVERS THE SW ATLC S OF 26N W OF 74W GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N W
OF 77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES AND A 1023
MB HIGH JUST NE NEAR BERMUDA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S THROUGH
THU THEN RETREAT EASTWARD. THE TROPICAL WAVE...REMNANTS OF
CHANTAL WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE SW ATLC BY FRI THEN NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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