[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE COAST OF COAST OF HAITI. THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL AT 10/1800 UTC IS NEAR
16.5N 73.0W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 232 NM
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. CHANTAL
IS MOVING WESTWARD 25 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 21N
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 68W IN THE MONA
PASSAGE AND 72W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM PUERTO RICO
TO 20N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE MONA
PASSAGE. THE HAZARDS TO LAND ARE WIND...SURGE...
AND RAINFALL. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE
AFFECTING HAITI TODAY...EVEN IF CHANTAL WEAKENS.
IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS MAY REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
IN THE AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN HISPANIOLA...IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS IS ALONG
10N23W 16N22W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND IT
COINCIDES WITH A NEARBY GLOBAL MODEL 700 MB TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVE
MOISTURE MAXIMUM FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 20W AND
26W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THAT IS NEAR THE ITCZ
IS FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS 14N35W 7N37W...
MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ. A LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD VERTICALLY THROUGH 700 MB...TO THE SOUTH OF
14N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 93W/94W TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO
15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE
AND MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK. GLOBAL MODEL DATA
INDICATE THAT ANY IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY REMNANTS
OF THIS WAVE MAY MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN DURING THE DAY TODAY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE NORTH
OF 20N...POSSIBLE MORE RELATED TO THE 24N97W MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS
OF SENEGAL AND GAMBIA...ALONG 17W FROM 13N TO 14N...
TO 12N23W 12N26W 10N33W AND 8N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 8N36W TO 5N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 45 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 8N40W 6N45W 3N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INCLUDING THE AREAS THAT
ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 23N80W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
SURROUNDS THIS FEATURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE SOUTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 85W...THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 31N TO
THE WEST OF 74W...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM JAMAICA
NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY
WESTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
24N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN
81W AND 83W...COVERING THE ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD AND
THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 24N97W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA
FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 93W AND 102W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 91W AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
TEXAS AND MEXICO ALONG 98W.

A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N91W ALONG THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N TO 22N
BETWEEN 88W AND 94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N TO 21N.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS THE AREA FROM
THE COAST OF HONDURAS TO 17N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N65W...THROUGH
30N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1020 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N89W...TO
24N95W...TO A MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS 1019 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N97W.

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND THUNDER ARE BEING
REPORTED IN THE COMPARATIVELY MORE EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. MOSTLY SCATTERED MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF AREA.
THE KINGSVILLE NAVAL AIR STATION IS REPORTING
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. BAY CITY TEXAS IS REPORTING
HEAVY RAIN AND A VISIBILITY OF 1.5 MILES. BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PEARLAND REGIONAL
AIRPORT NEAR HOUSTON AND IN SUGARLAND. A LOW CLOUD
CEILING IS IN PATTERSON LOUISIANA. HIGH CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN THE NEW ORLEANS METRO-
POLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
OBSERVED IN THE MOBILE ALABAMA METROPOLITAN AREA.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED BETWEEN PENSACOLA AND MILTON FLORIDA.
RAIN AND THUNDER ARE FOUND BETWEEN MILTON AND
CRESTVIEW...AND NEAR MARIANNA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING
IS OVER VALPARAISO. LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN TALLAHASSEE...
IN BROOKSVILLE...AND THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
TO THE VANDENBERG AIRPORT NEAR TAMPA. THUNDER AND
RAIN ARE FOUND IN PERRY. LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM THE KEY WEST
NAVAL AIR STATION TO PUNTA GORDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL
PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER TO 65W.
MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO 75W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...BASED ON THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...
MIATPTPAN...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/1200 UTC...
ARE 0.62 IN TRINIDAD...0.34 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO...AND 0.26 IN BARBADOS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N IN COLOMBIA TO 8N81W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N83W SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN
30 NM TO NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 77W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT T.S. CHANTAL. EXPECT EAST WINDS 25
TO 30 KNOTS AND 9 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11.5N
TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W.

HISPANIOLA...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WILL BE PASSING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 500 MB AND 700 MB SHOW A TROUGH
FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE
AREA TRANSITIONS INTO A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST
SHOWS A RIDGE DURING THE PERIOD.

PLEASE REFER TO WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/EXPERIMENTAL/
RAINFALL/DATA/FRAINCOMBO1.GIF FOR MORE RAINFALL
INFORMATION.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N52W. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 46W
AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N49W 28N53W TO
29N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N48W 28N50W 27N53W...AND TO THE NORTH OF
28N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N34W TO 28N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N39W
28N41W AND 25N44W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N38W TO 28N40W 25N44W AND 26N46W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N65W...THROUGH
30N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1020 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N89W...TO
24N95W...TO A MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS 1019 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N97W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF
THE 31N49W 28N53W 29N60W SURFACE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 22N32W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 18N...TO THE
EAST OF THE 31N39W 28N41W 25N44W SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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