[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 70.8W AT 10/1200
UTC OR ABOUT 132 NM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MOVING W AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 67W-70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN
60W-70W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N23W TO 16N22W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AND COINCIDES
WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF 12N23W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVE MOISTURE MAXIMUM FROM 10N-15N
BETWEEN 18W-25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
08N-13N BETWEEN 20W-25W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N37W TO 14N35W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH LOW-LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATING CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELD VERTICALLY THROUGH 700 MB S OF 14N BETWEEN 30W-42W. A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE
AXIS AND THIS IS RESULTING IN VERY LIMITED CONVECTION AT THIS
TIME. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LARGELY REMAINS E OF
36W AND ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N94W TO 20N92W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE...LARGELY INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK.
EARLIER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS DIMINISHED.
GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATES ANY REMNANTS OF THIS WAVE WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE NEAR
COASTAL EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO
15N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
15N20W TO 12N23W TO 08N37W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 25W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATES OVER THE GULF BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO NEAR
35N104W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
NEAR 25N81W. MOSTLY MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT PREVAILS AND ALONG
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
29N87W THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS W-NW...INCREASING CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING S OF 28N E OF 85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING
OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 93W. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
HOLD FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE BASIN THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
AND EMERGE INTO THE WATERS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS AND
MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH PRECIPITATION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
WHICH IS POSITIONED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND PROVIDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 14N E OF
71W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND MANY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO TRACK W-NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
CONTINUE IMPACTING HISPANIOLA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 14N91W AND IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S
OF 20N W OF 80W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-84W. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
W-NW CLEARING THE BASIN BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH
E-SE TRADES RE-ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL COAST OF HISPANIOLA. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
PLENTY OF RAINFALL...LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY ON TOP OF OTHER IMPACTS SUCH AS WIND AND STORM SURGE.
ONCE CHANTAL MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS BY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...E-SE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME
WITH THE MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR
25N81W THAT IS PROVIDING THE SW NORTH ATLC S OF 30N W OF 75W
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THIS MORNING.
THIS AREA INCLUDES WESTERN CUBA AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NW BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N66W. THE HIGH
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL TRACKS ON ITS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FARTHER
EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N55W THAT SUPPORTS
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N48W
TO 30N50W TO 28N56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 37N33W
THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N40W TO 26N45W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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